Tuesday, February 23, 2010

If I Were Buying a Smart Phone Today

The reports of the Iphones death because of Android and Windows Phone are exaggerated. Many think that open phones will win in the end and Apple will be left with 10% of the market.

This is an an interesting assessment of the smart phone end game with windows phone and android left standing. The problem for them is two fold the short term and the apple adjustment.

Short Term

Open is the way to go long term. Sort term apple with 200,000 apps has a one or two year lead and their hardware is bullet proof. Any hardware or software problems in the open players could kill them it the public's mind.

I have an Iphone . If I were buying today I would be thinking Android, however, with the announcement of windows phone, this places the old IBM FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) into the game. Android might loose and I would be stuck with a boat anchor. I would decide to get the market leader Iphone, and watch the also rans to see who wins.

The Apple Adjustment

Your end game assumes an Apple steady state that is not likely to be the case. They are the communicator innovator and are likely to stay out front. They have voice now and 4G will probably have multi-tasking, pico projection and video conferencing.

What happens of Apple makes a deal with At&T and every other carrier? What happens if they then go open, hmm. I'm just saying it ain't over till the fat lady sings and she is not on stage yet.

In the short term, I think the announcement of Windows Phone will boost Iphone sales and slow Android/Google Phone sales. Let the Smart Phone wars begin.

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