Friday, October 31, 2008

Obama and McCain Tied with White Voters

McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.

Who would have thought that the European American vote would be tied. If this holds it means the ethnic votes we have been looking at in the early part of this Political Cultural Health Index series will carry the day.

For raw number details Click Here

Let's take a moment to think about this in the context of the Political Cultural Health Index (PCH Index) the PCH Index is a measurement I am constructing and adding to the language of Cultural Health so that we might more efficiently think about the dynamics of "race" in Political elections.

The historic election of 2008 is the first time since the 1960's that their is an opportunity to present and benchmark the realities associated with the PCH Index. How does it work? When Jesse Jackson Sr, an African American, ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984 and 1988 , only 14% of Mississippi voters voted for him. This fact would allow one to conclude that the PCH Index for the state of Mississippi is 14%. Said another way, the largest number of people in that demographic that have demonstrated that they would vote for an African American for president is 14% of those that voted.

Naturally, we can expand this example state by state to the nation. A number of other African Americans have run for the highest office in the land but Barack Obama is the first of his ethnic group to have a realistic chance to win the super job interview.

The PCH Index has a demographic side and it has a psychographic side that can apply to individual ethnic groups.

So in this poll 44% of White voters are for Obama and 44% are for McCain. This would indicate that the European American PCH Index is at an all time high. The question is will it hold? If the race is close Obama will lose. The Republican voter suppression tactics and the Cultural Poisoning effect will upset the election. The Cultural Poisoning effect (Bradly effect) is the historic reality that describes Whites saying they will vote for a Black person, until they get in the voting booth.

This Oregon rally of 75,000 does not look like a tie but the polls say so

Today conventional wisdom in the MSM are discounting both Republican voter suppression and the Cultural Poisoning effect. They are saying it is all over but the shouting and Obama and the Democrats will win in a landslide.

What is troubling about this, is the old saying, "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is". This applies to matters of Cultural Health and voting too. Most of the pundits say Obama will win and possibly blow it out. The trouble with this is, that the one group that has been consistently wrong in the primary contests of both parties is the pundits.

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